Do you expect Intra-Year Declines

Given the selloff, on Friday I thought it would make sense to update this piece I sent out a while back.  Last year was a historically calm year for the market and I would not expect that to continue going forward.

I don’t have a crystal ball, but the one thing I do know is that the market usually reverts to its mean behaviors.  The average intra-year decline since 1980 is about -14%.  Last year the largest intra-year decline was -3%.  As the chart below shows, it should not surprise anyone to see the market have pullbacks in 2018 and most likely greater than -3%.


JPM 1.31.18.PNG


A pullback would do a lot to make the US markets more attractively valued than they are currently.  If a patient investor expects these pullbacks, hopefully, it will be easier for them to stay the course when they occur.